Comments on: Recency Bias in Web Analytics http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html Increasing Front Page Performance for Online Media Wed, 02 May 2012 17:54:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Dennis R. Mortensen http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-80398 Dennis R. Mortensen Fri, 08 Jan 2010 20:13:03 +0000 http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-80398 Hi Jen, Well put! But being brutally honest, I see myself fall into a recency bias from time to time. Have a great weekend d. :-) Hi Jen,

Well put! But being brutally honest, I see myself fall into a recency bias from time to time.

Have a great weekend
d. :-)

]]> By: Jen http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-80397 Jen Fri, 08 Jan 2010 20:05:14 +0000 http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-80397 Great post! My favorite analytics example of recency bias is all the tickets I've seen for "a big drop in traffic" on x date. 9 times out of 10, all it would take is widening the reporting window to realize that they never opened a ticket for the huge lift in traffic they got 6 weeks ago (which was the real problem) ;) Great post! My favorite analytics example of recency bias is all the tickets I’ve seen for “a big drop in traffic” on x date. 9 times out of 10, all it would take is widening the reporting window to realize that they never opened a ticket for the huge lift in traffic they got 6 weeks ago (which was the real problem) ;)

]]> By: Wanna be better with metrics? Watch more poker and less baseball. | Retail: Shaken Not Stirred http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-80214 Wanna be better with metrics? Watch more poker and less baseball. | Retail: Shaken Not Stirred Thu, 07 Jan 2010 01:01:23 +0000 http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-80214 [...] a different way, Dennis Mortensen addressed the topic in his excellent blog post “The Recency Bias in Web Analytics,” where he points out the tendency to give undue weight to more recent numbers. He included a [...] [...] a different way, Dennis Mortensen addressed the topic in his excellent blog post “The Recency Bias in Web Analytics,” where he points out the tendency to give undue weight to more recent numbers. He included a [...]

]]> By: Patrick http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-268 Patrick Sun, 06 Apr 2008 13:03:00 +0000 http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-268 Does this mean you think for many companies trying to come up with that great viral marketing campaign doesn't pay off - as they usually lose money (don't make as much money as they could with an other investment) despite 1 in x times hitting a homerun?<br/><br/>I'm just curious - I'm still a beginner to online marketing/web analytics and didn't mean to say that viral marketing (or PPC) for that matter didn't pay off, it was just a random thought Does this mean you think for many companies trying to come up with that great viral marketing campaign doesn’t pay off – as they usually lose money (don’t make as much money as they could with an other investment) despite 1 in x times hitting a homerun?

I’m just curious – I’m still a beginner to online marketing/web analytics and didn’t mean to say that viral marketing (or PPC) for that matter didn’t pay off, it was just a random thought

]]> By: Dennis R. Mortensen http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-267 Dennis R. Mortensen Sun, 06 Apr 2008 09:36:00 +0000 http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-267 Hi Patrick,<br/><br/>Thank you very much for the thorough and insightful response Patrick. AND It seems like we are very much on the same page in regards to biases in general. Good to see! :-)<br/><br/>N.B.<br/>From time to time - I personally explain a lot of the Viral Marketing efforts with a Sensationalism attitude – which is essentially what’s called <b>media bias</b> - AND that is definitely a whole post by itself.<br/><br/>Cheers.<br/>Dennis Hi Patrick,

Thank you very much for the thorough and insightful response Patrick. AND It seems like we are very much on the same page in regards to biases in general. Good to see! :-)

N.B.
From time to time – I personally explain a lot of the Viral Marketing efforts with a Sensationalism attitude – which is essentially what’s called media bias – AND that is definitely a whole post by itself.

Cheers.
Dennis

]]> By: Patrick http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-266 Patrick Sat, 05 Apr 2008 22:37:00 +0000 http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-266 I just read my post and realized just how long it got..sorry!;)<br/><br/>Unfortunately I also realized it might not be easy to follow my strange thoughts. So to sum it up:<br/><br/>- if we're biased towards extreme events and/or positive events, we might think PPC is great if we had one home-run and 10 losses that didn't hurt us much with PPC<br/><br/>I can imagine this might be an issue with viral marketing/link bait ideas...you lose a lot of money on trying to come up with a great viral marketing campaign/great link bait and fail at it a ton of times, but one time it works out great and you're like WOW!!! - however over all you're still at a loss)<br/><br/>P.S.: If we're biased towards positive events in our childhood/teens, that has to be the reason why they call it "the good old times" lol I just read my post and realized just how long it got..sorry!;)

Unfortunately I also realized it might not be easy to follow my strange thoughts. So to sum it up:

- if we’re biased towards extreme events and/or positive events, we might think PPC is great if we had one home-run and 10 losses that didn’t hurt us much with PPC

I can imagine this might be an issue with viral marketing/link bait ideas…you lose a lot of money on trying to come up with a great viral marketing campaign/great link bait and fail at it a ton of times, but one time it works out great and you’re like WOW!!! – however over all you’re still at a loss)

P.S.: If we’re biased towards positive events in our childhood/teens, that has to be the reason why they call it “the good old times” lol

]]> By: Patrick http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-265 Patrick Sat, 05 Apr 2008 22:27:00 +0000 http://visualrevenue.com/blog/2008/04/recency-bias-in-web-analytics.html#comment-265 Hi Dennis,<br/><br/>I just had a similar thought (I've thought about the recency bias - without knowing the expression or tying it to analytics, too but this post made me think of another bias in a similar way):<br/><br/>Think about going to school or your childhood..do you remember all those good memories, but don't really remember the bad things you went through as much? Maybe we should call it the positivity bias ;).<br/><br/>I'm wondering if such a bias exists when it comes to looking at web analytics data, too:<br/><br/>What if you're thinking about campaigns of the past and compare two campaigns (at a similar point in time) and one of them made your company a profit of 100,000$ whereas the other one made your company a loss of 100,000$ ?<br/><br/>Will most people be biased towards remembering the profitable campaign (while crowding out the campaign that made a loss)? <br/><br/>I know many people who bet money on sports (it's legal here in Germany). They use 'gut instinct' and have never tracked a singificant sample size.<br/><br/>They have no idea if they've been making a profit or a loss over the last say 5 years they've been betting on sports (easily a game or more per day). However when somebody asks them they mention how they earn money on the side by betting on sports (Chances are like the vast majority of people they're winning 50% of all games and make 91 cents on each such game and are losing 1$ on the other 50% of the games).<br/><br/>I really believe the reason why many of these people think they're actually making money (other than not knowing well enough how that industry works) is that they are biased towards the games they won <br/>(I hope I can judge this well enough by being around such people :-)).<br/><br/>I also think that we might be biased towards extreme events that have happened:<br/><br/>What effects could this possibly have when it comes to looking at web marketing campaigns? <br/><br/>Say somebody has been running a ton of PPC campaigns and most of them made a little loss, however they had a few PPC campaigns that performed EXTREMELY WELL and made them a FAT PROFIT.<br/><br/>SEO has been making them constant profits, but never anything that had that WOW-effect (like winning that bet which had odds of 1:15!) <br/><br/>Maybe that would biase some people towards PPC?<br/><br/>I think there are even other bias such as when you know somebody you are biased towards their opinion: Say 50% of all experts are of the opinion X, the other 50% are of the opinion Y. You have a good friend who's an expert at that given topic who's of opinion Y - I bet most people would be biased towards opinion Y! <br/><br/>(I often catch myself having such a bias and then try to think rationally: just because I know this expert and know he's extremely smart and knowledgeable doesn't mean he's definitely right (even if he is most of the time)..if there are a lot of other experts in the field saying something else)<br/><br/>P.S.: Keep up the good work, this is the first time I'm posting, but I've been reading your posts regularly! Hi Dennis,

I just had a similar thought (I’ve thought about the recency bias – without knowing the expression or tying it to analytics, too but this post made me think of another bias in a similar way):

Think about going to school or your childhood..do you remember all those good memories, but don’t really remember the bad things you went through as much? Maybe we should call it the positivity bias ;).

I’m wondering if such a bias exists when it comes to looking at web analytics data, too:

What if you’re thinking about campaigns of the past and compare two campaigns (at a similar point in time) and one of them made your company a profit of 100,000$ whereas the other one made your company a loss of 100,000$ ?

Will most people be biased towards remembering the profitable campaign (while crowding out the campaign that made a loss)?

I know many people who bet money on sports (it’s legal here in Germany). They use ‘gut instinct’ and have never tracked a singificant sample size.

They have no idea if they’ve been making a profit or a loss over the last say 5 years they’ve been betting on sports (easily a game or more per day). However when somebody asks them they mention how they earn money on the side by betting on sports (Chances are like the vast majority of people they’re winning 50% of all games and make 91 cents on each such game and are losing 1$ on the other 50% of the games).

I really believe the reason why many of these people think they’re actually making money (other than not knowing well enough how that industry works) is that they are biased towards the games they won
(I hope I can judge this well enough by being around such people :-)).

I also think that we might be biased towards extreme events that have happened:

What effects could this possibly have when it comes to looking at web marketing campaigns?

Say somebody has been running a ton of PPC campaigns and most of them made a little loss, however they had a few PPC campaigns that performed EXTREMELY WELL and made them a FAT PROFIT.

SEO has been making them constant profits, but never anything that had that WOW-effect (like winning that bet which had odds of 1:15!)

Maybe that would biase some people towards PPC?

I think there are even other bias such as when you know somebody you are biased towards their opinion: Say 50% of all experts are of the opinion X, the other 50% are of the opinion Y. You have a good friend who’s an expert at that given topic who’s of opinion Y – I bet most people would be biased towards opinion Y!

(I often catch myself having such a bias and then try to think rationally: just because I know this expert and know he’s extremely smart and knowledgeable doesn’t mean he’s definitely right (even if he is most of the time)..if there are a lot of other experts in the field saying something else)

P.S.: Keep up the good work, this is the first time I’m posting, but I’ve been reading your posts regularly!

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